JKM LNG futures are still signalling gasmageddon for Australia later this year.
Adjusted for an AUD at 70 cents, plus regasification costs, imported LNG will still be coming in at about $19Gj versus $12Gj today.
The gas cartel will respond to LNG imports by restricting supply so that global prices become the marginal price setter.
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Sadly, this insanity will coincide with the lifting of vitality rebates, so the shock for households by way of 2026/27 might be enormous once more.
There’s some short-term vitality aid coming in falling oil costs, and, subsequently, LNG contract costs. Goldman.
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Incorporating the ¼mb/d improve to our OPEC8+ provide path from July, we’ve nudged down our oil worth forecast by $2-3, with Brent/WTI averaging $60/56 within the the rest of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026.
Our key conviction stays that prime spare capability and excessive recession riskskew the dangers to grease costs to the draw back regardless of comparatively tight spot fundamentals.
However Albo’s failed $12Gj worth cap remains to be the ground for native gasoline costs when reservation would drop the value effectively beneath $10Gj.
Undertake Peter Dutton’s wonderful gasoline coverage now!
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