DXY reversed.

AUD is printing multiple hammer candles.

CNY reopens today after the LNY break.

Gold is massively overbought.
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Dust having one other crack.

Miners meh.

EM meh.
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Junk meh.

Yields meh.

Shares solely go up.
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If the previous few days are an instance of Trump tariff goals, then what has the market to be afraid of?
Extra importantly, the world seems ready to provide Trump his symbolic wins after which get again to enterprise as normal.
The bottom line is China, after all. However even it’s treading softly.
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After the US chief gave a last-minute reprieve to each Canada and Mexico, his 10% tariffs on China took impact after midnight Washington time on Tuesday. Inside seconds, Beijing introduced further tariffs on roughly 80 merchandise to take impact on Feb. 10, launched an antitrust investigation into Google, tightened export controls on crucial minerals, and added two US firms to its blacklist of unreliable entities.
The swift however calculated retaliation signaled that Beijing had realized a lesson from its first commerce battle with Trump, when China retaliated with tariffs on par or near what the US imposed. This time Xi solely put tariffs on $14 billion value of American merchandise, a sliver of what Trump focused, whereas taking different measures that confirmed off China’s skill to inflict additional ache on US firms if wanted.
Goldman sees CNY falling from right here.
…we expect the broad USD ought to strengthen (pushed by larger-than-expected tariffs on Canada/Mexico) alongside the idiosyncratic weakening strain on the CNY (from China-targeted tariffs).
Furthermore, we expect the market will worth in some uncertainty or danger premium of further tariffs from right here – sustaining upside strain on USD/CNY.
Taken collectively, we expect the authorities will enable a gradual drift larger within the USD/CNY fixing in the direction of 7.30, which ought to enable spot to maneuver in the direction of 7.40-7.50.
On financial coverage, though we’ve got been anticipating a 50bp RRR reduce in Q1 given the weak home economic system and the necessity for continued financial coverage easing, there’s a danger that the PBOC manages interbank liquidity utilizing low-profile devices like repo operations and skips high-profile easing measures like RRR cuts.
That might be a 3% transfer. If AUD matched it, we might see a return to the tariff backside of some days in the past in thehigh .60s.
For now, it seems the AUD rout is over.
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