Today’s Q1 national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that Australians lurched back into recession, with per capita GDP growth declining by 0.2% over the quarter:
Per capita GDP has declined in nine of the last 11 quarters, down a total of 1.7% over that period.
The overall economy also grew by only 0.2% over the quarter, well below consensus estimates of a 0.4% rise.
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Katherine Keenan, ABS head of nationwide accounts, defined that: “Financial progress was delicate within the March quarter. Public spending recorded the biggest detraction from progress because the September quarter 2017. Excessive climate occasions decreased home remaining demand and exports. Climate impacts had been significantly evident in mining, tourism and delivery”.
Family consumption remained delicate, recording zero per capita progress in Q1 and a 1.0% decline year-on-year:
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Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Buyers, famous:
“The modest acceleration within the year-ended progress price from the nadir reached in Q3 2024 has largely stalled. The end result underwhelmed the RBA’s comparatively modest quarterly expectation of 0.45% qoq progress and 1.8% yoy”.
“The Financial institution now wants 0.7% qoq in Q2 to hit its forecast—a price not seen since Q2 2022”.
“This end result provides to the case that it’s acceptable for the RBA to ease coverage settings additional. Nonetheless, for now, taken along with a decent labour market, it helps the Financial institution’s assertion that there’s at present no want to maneuver to an “expansionary stance”.
Excessive climate occasions apart, it was one other disappointing end result.
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