The latest BOE meeting saw an expected cut which buoyed European markets coupled with a resurgent Yen and hesitation around tonight’s NFP print kept the USD in a weak space overnight. Wall Street made modest gains as earnings season ramps up with Amazon in focus while the latest crude oil figures suggest a glut in supply. The Australian dollar is now in a much stronger position to almost cross the 63 cent level after almost crashing below the key 60 handle at the start of the week gap action.

10 year Treasury yields pulled back again to the 4.4% level while trading in oil saw both markers dropping nearly 2% as Brent crude finished below the $75USD per barrel level. Gold failed to continue its push higher as it gave back some recent gains to finish below the $2850USD per ounce level.

Looking at stock markets from Asia in yesterday’s session, where mainland Chinese share markets have bounced back with vigour as the Shanghai Composite shoots more than 1% higher while the Hang Seng Index has also made up lost ground, closing more than 1% higher to 20891 points.

The Hang Seng Index daily chart shows how resistance formed around the 21000 point level with only one false breakout in late November squashed back to the 20000 point level where price action has stayed since. This was setting up for another potential breakdown here as price oscillated downward but has turned into an impressive bounce and looks like continuing as markets reopen:

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Japanese inventory markets have been additionally capable of clawback some current losses regardless of the upper Yen, with the Nikkei 225 ending almost 0.6% greater at 39056 factors.

Worth motion had been indicating a rounding prime on the each day chart with each day momentum retracing away from overbought readings with the breakout final month above the 40000 level stage nearly in full remission. Yen volatility stays an issue right here, with a sustained return above the 38000 level stage from Might/June probably on the playing cards however resistance is firming:

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Australian shares have been the very best within the area with the ASX200 closing 1.2% greater at 8520 factors.

SPI futures are down 0.2% regardless of the considerably good strikes on Wall Road in a single day so count on extra volatility in at the moment’s session. The each day chart sample and brief value motion suggests resistance overhead on the 8300 level stage is beginning to weigh available on the market with a giant push by required quickly to get again to the 2024 highs with momentum as soon as overbought however now regular:

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European markets have been very constructive throughout many of the continent because the Eurostoxx 50 Index gained greater than 1.6% to shut at 5356 factors.

This was trying to flip into a bigger breakout with assist on the 4900 level stage fairly agency with resistance unable to breach the 5000 level barrier in current months. Worth had beforehand cleared the 4700 native resistance stage because it seeks to return to the earlier highs as momentum picks up strongly right here with the 5000 level stage turning into very sturdy assist:

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Wall Road’s rebound regarded set to proceed however once more tech shares pushed the NASDAQ round, up solely 0.4% whereas the S&P500 lifted simply 0.1% to remain above the 6000 level stage at 6067 factors.

Worth motion had all of the emblems of a continuation under the 6000 level assist stage because the potential to overshoot and overreact to the FOMC assembly going into the NFP print tonight is constructing. This could have arrange a rally into the 6200 level space however might the primary stage of a pump and dump scheme though overhead resistance is weakening:

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Forex markets have been buoyed by the BOE reduce and a weaker USD throughout the board as a consequence of pricing in of tonight’s NFP print with the USD Index once more falling again. Euro crammed in most of its very brief time period dip to nearly get above the 1.04 stage in a single day however there are brief time period indicators of exhaustion setting in right here earlier than the NFP print.

The union foreign money just lately discovered overhead resistance on the 1.05 deal with however has deflated all week earlier than the Friday night time slam dunk into the mid 1.03 space as momentum accelerates to the draw back. Quick and medium time period assist continues to be underneath menace right here and requires a major transfer greater earlier than calling this over:

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The USDJPY pair is accelerating in its falls with Yen firming stronger once more in a single day with a break under the 152 stage this morning earlier than the Tokyo open.

Quick time period momentum was extraordinarily oversold earlier than the beginning of week bounce however requires value motion to at the least recover from the 156 stage to name this a correct development greater for USD and this hasn’t come to cross as USD weakens structurally total:

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The Australian greenback was one of many largest casualties of the commerce battle because the Pacific Peso gapped all the way down to the 60 deal with however has now steadied very strongly again at its earlier weekly highs to kind a strong backside sample, once more nearly crossing the 63 stage this morning.

The current observe by to the excessive 62’s and low 63’s was at all times excessive threat going into the stay February RBA price assembly and after the Trumpian tariff campaign so look ahead to a rejection of medium time period assist on the mid 61 cent stage though this bounceback might shot over the 200 day MA (transferring black line):

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Oil markets at the moment are in flux as a result of power battle with China as each WTI and Brent crude had extra selloffs, the latter ending nicely under the $75USD per barrel stage with assist too weak to carry again the promoting tide.

The each day chart sample reveals the put up New Yr rally that acquired slightly out of hand and now reverting again to the sideways motion for the latter half of 2024. The potential for a brand new rally to kind above the $77USD per barrel stage from right here is dwindling as recessionary fears mount:

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Gold nonetheless desires to proceed its surge above the $2800USD per ounce stage however its current run has stalled considerably in a single day, heading again to the $2850 stage after nearly crossing $2890 stage mid week.

Worth motion had been accelerating in confidence in early December as new ranges of assist have been being created no matter USD power however this pullback and rebound each had been preventing an excessive amount of underneath the $2700 zone so I’ve been skeptical of any upside potential. Nonetheless that is trying extra attention-grabbing because the earlier weekly excessive is now surpassed though momentum is sort of overbought:

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Glossary of Acronyms and Technical Evaluation Phrases:

ATR: Common True Vary – measures the diploma of value volatility averaged over a time interval

ATR Assist/Resistance: a ratcheting mechanism that follows value under/above a development, that if breached reveals above common volatility

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CCI: Commodity Channel Index: a momentum studying that calculates present value away from the statistical imply or “typical” value to point overbought (far above the imply) or oversold (far under the imply)

Low/Excessive Transferring Common: rolling imply of costs on this case, the high and low for the day/hour which creates a band across the precise value motion

FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee, month-to-month assembly of Federal Reserve concerning financial coverage (setting rates of interest)

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DOE: US Division of Power 

Uncle Level: or cease loss level, a stage at which you’ve clearly been improper in your place, so cry uncle and get out/improper in your place, so cry uncle and get out!