As avian influenza rages by means of birds and dairy cattle throughout america, Georgia has grow to be the most recent state to detect the virus in a business poultry flock, and on Friday, it halted all poultry gross sales to mitigate further spread of the disease. Nationally, egg costs are hovering—if you’ll find them in any respect in your native grocery retailer.

The continued outbreak in animals has additionally led to at least 67 human cases of bird flu, with all however one inflicting delicate sickness. Earlier this month, an individual in Louisiana died after being hospitalized with severe bird flu in December. It’s the nation’s first recorded demise attributed to H5N1.

The US has beforehand licensed three H5N1 vaccines for people, however they’re not out there commercially. The federal government has bought hundreds of thousands of doses for the nationwide stockpile in case they’re wanted. However even because the outbreak unfold, federal well being officers below President Joe Biden have been hesitant to deploy them. Consultants say the choice comes all the way down to threat, and at present, the chance of H5N1 stays low. Rolling out a vaccine to farm staff and others at larger threat of an infection can be a extra focused tactic, however even that measure could also be untimely. Now, with a changeover in federal well being management imminent as President Donald Trump begins his second time period, the choice rests with the brand new administration.

“In the meanwhile, from the viewpoint of severity and ease of transmission, it doesn’t look like an crucial to get a vaccine out to guard people,” says William Schaffner, a doctor and professor of preventive medication at Vanderbilt College in Tennessee.

To this point, no person-to-person unfold of H5N1 has been recognized, however well being officers are monitoring the virus for any genetic modifications that may make transmission amongst individuals extra probably. Most hen flu infections are associated to animal exposures. Of the 67 recognized human circumstances within the US, 40 have been linked to sick dairy cattle and 23 are related to poultry farms and culling operations. Within the different 4 circumstances, the precise supply isn’t recognized.

Within the US, human circumstances have been delicate, with lots of them inflicting solely conjunctivitis. In some circumstances, individuals have had delicate respiratory signs. Except for the Louisiana affected person, all of the people who examined constructive for H5N1 recovered rapidly and by no means wanted to be hospitalized. Traditionally although, H5N1 has been deadly in round 50 % of circumstances. Since 2003, a complete of 954 circumstances of human H5N1 have been reported to the World Health Organization, and about half of them died. Egypt, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and China have reported the very best variety of human hen flu deaths.

These numbers include a number of caveats. For one, lots of these deaths occurred in locations the place individuals dwell very near the sick poultry. “In these circumstances, the pondering is that they probably received a really giant dose of the virus,” Schaffner says.

Plus, the case fatality price—the proportion of contaminated individuals who die from the illness—solely takes into consideration recognized circumstances, and a few circumstances of H5N1 are little doubt going undetected partially as a result of hen flu signs are just like different respiratory viruses. Within the US, language limitations amongst farm staff, lack of testing, and a reluctance amongst staff to report that they’re sick are additionally components. “We most likely miss extra circumstances than we detect, and we’re more likely to detect a case that’s extreme,” says Shira Doron, chief an infection management officer for Tufts Drugs in Boston and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Heart.