Warning Indicators Flash For Trump

It’s Wednesday. Have you ever seen 📹 this wild MLB catch? It’s throughout my social media feeds.

In immediately’s problem:

Economic system shrinks in first GDP report of 12 months
New polling: Trump’s approval is underwater
Trump blames Biden for inventory market weak spot
Senate GOP pressured to again or buck Trump tariffs

📊 NEWS THIS MORNING

Economic system shrinks amid uncertainty over tariffs. Trump says ‘be affected person’:

This morning, after the conclusion of President Trump’s first 100 days, the nation awoke to a brand new metric overlaying a lot of his early time in workplace — and it’s not notably glowing.

U.S. gross home product (GDP) shrank 0.3 % in the course of the first three months of the 12 months amid uncertainty round Trump’s tariffs.

For comparability, the GDP was up 2.4 % over the last quarter of 2024. That is the steepest decline since early 2022. Economists had anticipated a slight acquire somewhat than a drop.

Sure, however: The figures aren’t as clear-cut because the topline quantity suggests. This quantity possible overstates how dangerous issues are, analysts say, as a result of imports surged forward of many tariffs being carried out.

The Hill’s Sylvan Lane explains: “The primary-quarter import surge took roughly 5 proportion factors off of the GDP development fee, in line with the Commerce Division, washing out almost 4 proportion factors from home funding and roughly 1 proportion level from shopper spending.”

Wednesday’s GDP report “most likely overstates the economic system’s weak spot, however the economic system’s weak,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, informed The Wall Avenue Journal. He pointed to slower shopper spending in addition to a decline in federal spending within the first three months of the 12 months.

A decline in shopper sentiment in April “doesn’t lend confidence that they’re going to hold powerful right here,” he mentioned. “If the administration can’t discover an off-ramp on the tariffs quickly…then I feel we’re going to see much more destructive GDP numbers useless forward, and in the end job losses,” Zandi added. (WSJ)

The inventory market is one other indicator of how issues are going: The stock market fell this morning. The S&P 500 misplaced 1.7 %, the Dow fell by 1.5 % and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.4 %.

Trump is making an attempt to maneuver the blame: “That is Biden’s Inventory Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over till January twentieth. Tariffs will quickly begin kicking in, and firms are beginning to transfer into the USA in file numbers,” Trump posted this morning on Reality Social, telling Individuals to “BE PATIENT!!!” 🔎Trump’s full post

🗨️ Follow today’s live blog

A number of issues to know:

1. This GDP information covers January, February and March. It doesn’t issue within the hefty reciprocal tariffs that Trump introduced on the notorious April 2 “Liberation Day.” Nonetheless, the market fears have been mirrored pre-April, so it isn’t fully irrelevant.

2. The info is messy: The New York Times argues the information is deceptive due to how the federal government adjusted for a surge in imports to get forward of the incoming tariffs.

3. The GDP — gross *home* product — doesn’t embrace imports. Imports are subtracted from all items and companies bought within the U.S.

Taking place now — a gathering of the MAGA minds:

President Trump is holding a Cupboard assembly along with his high advisers. He kicked it off with a quip about Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth, whom he described as his “least controversial individual” on his Cupboard. Lol.

Extra highlights:

He blamed Biden: Trump doubled down on blaming former President Biden for the inventory market troubles. “That’s Biden, that’s not Trump,” he mentioned.

On China: “I do know that China is doing very poorly proper now, simply noticed some studies popping out. And I don’t need that to occur to China,” Trump mentioned. “I’m not blissful, I need China to do properly. I need each nation to do properly.”

Tidbit: “Gulf of America” hats have been positioned across the room. 📸 Photo

And on the a hundred and first day, we have a look at the polls:

A flurry of latest polls launched this morning, offering a window into how voters view President Trump taking an axe to the established order.

🚨 New polling: A brand new Choice Desk HQ (DDHQ) ballot for NewsNation exhibits Trump is 12 factors beneath water. Simply 44 % of registered voters approve of his job efficiency, whereas 56 % of voters disapprove. That’s notably uncommon for a president’s first few months in workplace when optimism and goodwill are usually at their highest.

^ Take into account: This ballot is roughly on par with DDHQ’s polling average of Trump’s efficiency.

Different new polls:

CNN polling on immigration: Most Individuals suppose Trump has gone too far in his deportations, imagine his immigration insurance policies haven’t made the U.S. safer AND that the deportations are illegal, according to a new CNN poll.
Reuters/Ipsos polling on the economic system: Trump’s approval on the economic system is decrease than at *any level* throughout his first or second time period, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos survey. His approval dropped to 36 %, and his disapproval is as much as 56 %.
Pew polling on Republicans: 54 % of Republican respondents need Democrats to push again on Trump’s insurance policies, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.
That is holding Republicans up at night time: The GOP has been very loyal to the president, however these tanking approval numbers are making them nervous as they look forward to the midterms. The Hill’s Amie Parnes spoke with Republican operatives who say Trump *wants* to cease with the turbulence on tariffs and as an alternative give attention to what bought him elected — the economic system. Learn Parnes’s reporting: ‘Trump’s sagging poll numbers become a concern for GOP’

➤ FOR YOUR RADAR:

NewsNation is hosting a town hall event with Trump tonight at 8 p.m. I’ll have an interest to see what he says about this new polling.

You’ll be able to watch the city corridor at TheHill.com and observe stay protection all through the night time.

➤ MORE READS:

The New York Times: Behind Trump’s Deal to Deport Venezuelans to El Salvador’s Most Feared Jail

The Washington Post: How did Trump’s first 100 days influence your 401(ok)? It’s time to look.

Politico: Contained in the commerce struggle: International diplomats reveal state of play with White Home

The Atlantic: One thing Alarming Is Taking place to the Job Market

➤ TIDBITS:

Oof: Take a look at 📸this week’s cover of The New Yorker.

That is so healthful: First daughter Ivanka Trump 📹 shared a video of her son Theo taking part in the piano for his grandfather, the president.

What Trump actually considered the Sign group chat fiasco: The Atlantic’s Ashley Parker and Michael Scherer describe their discussions with Trump over the group chat a journalist was unintentionally added into. Principally, Trump considers the story a hit as a result of it outlined the information cycle. 📹 Watch the clip

⏱️ON CAPITOL HILL

A really significant however meaningless vote:

Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) are forcing a vote as early as immediately to scrap President Trump’s tariffs.

Why it’s meaningless: Even when it passes the Senate, it might be useless on arrival within the Home. It’s nonbinding.

Why it’s significant: Republicans have been feeling very uneasy over Trump’s turbulent tariff struggle. This forces Republicans to go on file to both again the hefty tariffs or buck the president.

Learn Al Weaver’s reporting: ‘Senate GOP faces key test over Trump tariff policy’

➤ FUN FACT:

Apparently, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is renting a home from Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

COMING UP

The Home and Senate are in. President Trump is in Washington. (All instances Jap)

2 p.m.: Trump participates in a swearing-in ceremony for the ambassador to the U.Okay.

4 p.m.: Trump delivers remarks on “Investing in America.” 💻 Livestream

5:15 p.m.: First and final Home votes. 📆Today’s agenda

8 p.m.: Trump participates in a NewsNation city corridor.

10:45 p.m.: Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on the Emerge gala. That is her first massive speech since leaving workplace. 💻Livestream

Thursday: A nationwide protest is expected on Trump’s “struggle on working individuals.”

🐝 INTERNET BUZZ

🫧 Have fun: In the present day is Nationwide Bubble Tea Day.

🛳️ I’m right here for the total play-by-play : A massive fight broke out on a Carnival Cruise. Now, 24 individuals are on the “don’t sail” checklist.

🤖 Craving some existential worry about AI?: The Wall Avenue Journal’s Joanna Stern writes that she recorded every little thing she mentioned for 3 months. AI then created to-do lists, summaries of conversations and as Stern writes, “and a barely terrifying glimpse of the long run.” 😅 Read about her experience

🦘 A runaway kangaroo in Alabama, you say?: A kangaroo was noticed 📹hopping down a highway in Alabama.