On Thursday, I presented data showing that real Australian wages have fallen by 10.3% since the Q2 2020 peak and were tracking at late 2021 levels as of Q3 2024 (latest available data).

This calculation was derived by deflating the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) wage price index with the employer cost-of-living index.

Separate data from the ABS national accounts show that real per capita household disposable income has collapsed by around 8% from its Q2 2022 peak.

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This represented one of many largest actual per capita disposable earnings declines within the developed world.

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The Guardian’s Greg Jericho produced interesting data on the drivers of the rising worker value of dwelling, driving the decline in actual wages and family disposable earnings.

Jericho reveals that rising mortgage prices are the primary purpose worker dwelling prices have grown nicely above CPI inflation.

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“So nice is the impression of rate of interest rises that, since June 2022, mortgage repayments have accounted for almost half of the entire enhance in the price of dwelling for worker households”, Jericho wrote.

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The one upside is that the Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA) is tipped to start an easing cycle on 18 February, which might be adopted by additional price cuts all year long.

If these price cuts arrive, then worker dwelling prices will rise under CPI inflation and wage progress, leading to a rebound in actual family disposable earnings and actual wages.

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If Peter Dutton wins the election, the Coalition will have the ability to take credit score, despite the fact that it is going to have been pushed by the RBA.